The Conflict in Myanmar: Historical Roots and Contemporary Realities

By Matthew Parish

Myanmar, also known as Burma, is today the site of one of the world’s longest-running and most complex armed conflicts. What began as a struggle over decolonisation in the mid-twentieth century has metastasised into a patchwork of civil wars, military coups, ethnic insurgencies, and political repression. The conflict has escalated dramatically since the military coup of February 2021, plunging the country into nationwide warfare unprecedented in scale since independence in 1948. To understand the nature and extent of Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, one must trace both the historical legacies of colonial rule and the persistent tension between central authority and ethnic diversity.

Historical Background: From Colony to Independence

Myanmar’s modern political problems are deeply rooted in her colonial experience. The British conquered Burma in three wars between 1824 and 1885, annexing the territory to British India. Colonial administrators reinforced ethnic divisions: they recruited heavily from minority groups such as the Karen, Kachin, and Chin for their colonial army, while marginalising the majority Burmans. This created resentment and fostered a perception of ethnic groups as either collaborators or adversaries in the nationalist struggle.

After the devastation of Japanese occupation during the Second World War, Burma gained independence in 1948 under the leadership of Aung San and the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League. Aung San, assassinated months before independence, had promised a federal system that would grant substantial autonomy to ethnic minorities. That promise was never fully realised. Instead successive governments pursued centralised rule from Yangon (later Naypyidaw), fuelling rebellions across the country.

Ethnic Conflicts and Military Rule

Almost immediately after independence, civil war broke out. Communist insurgents and ethnic minority armies challenged the central government, seeking autonomy or independence. The Karen National Union (KNU), the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), and other armed groups established enduring insurgencies in the borderlands. The government’s inability to secure the country gave the military—known as the Tatmadaw—an ever-expanding role in politics.

In 1962 General Ne Win staged a coup, inaugurating nearly five decades of direct military rule. His regime imposed the “Burmese Way to Socialism,” which combined authoritarianism with economic isolation, leading to impoverishment and stagnation. Ethnic conflicts continued unabated, and the military pursued brutal counterinsurgency campaigns, often targeting civilians.

The late twentieth century saw intermittent ceasefires but no comprehensive peace. In 1988, a pro-democracy uprising was bloodily suppressed, and a new military junta, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, entrenched itself in power. Although multiparty elections were held in 1990 and won overwhelmingly by the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi, Aung San’s daughter, the military refused to recognise the results.

The Semi-Democratic Interlude, 2010–2020

Under international pressure and facing economic decline, the military initiated a controlled transition beginning in 2010. A quasi-civilian government was established under President Thein Sein, and limited reforms permitted the return of political parties and the release of Suu Kyi from house arrest.

The 2015 elections, won decisively by the NLD, raised hopes for democratic consolidation. Yet the military retained enormous constitutional powers, including control of key ministries and 25% of parliamentary seats. Moreover the NLD faced accusations of failing to advance ethnic federalism or protect minority rights.

Most infamously, between 2016 and 2017 the Tatmadaw carried out operations against the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine State, driving over 700,000 people into Bangladesh in what the United Nations described as a textbook case of ethnic cleansing. This episode underscored the enduring militarisation of ethnic relations and the fragility of Myanmar’s democratic opening.

The 2021 Coup and Nationwide Uprising

On 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw annulled the results of the 2020 elections (again won by the NLD), detained Aung San Suu Kyi, and declared a state of emergency. The coup provoked an explosion of resistance. Unlike earlier conflicts concentrated in ethnic borderlands, the uprising after 2021 spread nationwide, uniting urban protesters, students, and ethnic armed groups against the junta.

The Civil Disobedience Movement mobilised millions, paralysing public services. As repression intensified, protesters took up arms, forming People’s Defence Forces (PDFs). These local militias, often poorly armed but motivated, joined forces with longstanding ethnic armed organisations, creating the most significant nationwide challenge to military rule in modern Burmese history.

The Nature of the Current Conflict

The conflict today is characterised by its scale, fragmentation, and brutality. By 2023–25, the Tatmadaw was engaged in simultaneous battles on multiple fronts:

• In Sagaing and Magway regions of central Myanmar, PDFs wage guerrilla warfare, using improvised explosives and ambushes.

• In Kachin and Shan States, long-established ethnic armies such as the KIO and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army have intensified offensives, seizing military outposts.

• In Karenni (Kayah) and Chin States, resistance forces control significant territory, in effect creating liberated zones.

• In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army, initially in conflict with both the government and Rohingya groups, has expanded its control and emerged as a powerful player.

The junta has responded with scorched-earth tactics: indiscriminate airstrikes, burning villages, forced displacement, and widespread arrests. Reports of war crimes, including executions, torture, and sexual violence, are abundant. Millions have been displaced, creating one of Asia’s most severe humanitarian crises.

Regional and International Dimensions

Myanmar’s conflict has regional implications. Refugees flow into Thailand, India, Bangladesh, and China. Border instability threatens trade and security. China in particular exerts influence, balancing between supporting the junta for stability and cultivating relations with ethnic armed groups to secure its borderlands and infrastructure projects. Western governments, by contrast, have imposed sanctions and supported humanitarian assistance but have limited leverage. ASEAN has attempted mediation, but its principle of non-interference hampers effectiveness.

The Prospects for Resolution

Myanmar’s conflict is sustained by structural problems:

• The refusal of the military to relinquish power.

• The absence of a genuinely federal system to accommodate ethnic diversity.

• Deep mistrust between ethnic minorities and the Burman majority.

The nationwide resistance since 2021 has created unprecedented unity, yet translating that into a coherent alternative government remains a challenge. The National Unity Government (NUG), a government-in-exile composed of deposed parliamentarians and activists, seeks international recognition but has limited capacity inside Myanmar.

If history is a guide, the conflict may persist for years. The Tatmadaw has proved resilient through decades of insurgency and sanctions. Yet its authority is more contested than ever, and its legitimacy profoundly eroded. The risk of prolonged state fragmentation is high.

Conclusion

The conflict in Myanmar today is the culmination of decades of failed nation-building, ethnic division and military authoritarianism. Rooted in colonial legacies and reinforced by generations of coups and counterinsurgencies, it has now reached a scale where the state is fighting a war on multiple fronts, against both its majority population and its ethnic minorities. Unlike earlier episodes confined to borderlands, today’s conflict is truly nationwide, threatening the very cohesion of the state.