𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐈𝐚𝐭𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐲𝐚 𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐫𝐞-𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐀𝐫𝐚𝐛 𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

A failed initiative to improve relations between Libya and Israel may discourage covert ties and contribute to instability in Libya. Libya’s Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah removed Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush for a meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in Italy. This led to outrage and protests in Libya, with some Islamist lawmakers calling for Dbeibah’s removal. Israeli media reports suggest that improving relations between Israel and Libya is not a priority.

The US has backed the Mangoush-Cohen meeting as part of a campaign to normalize Israel’s relations with its Arab foes.

The United States has supported the Mangoush-Cohen meeting as part of a strategy to improve ties between Israel and its Arab adversaries. The GNU in Tripoli and the GNS in Benghazi are Libya’s two competing governments at the moment. Before the presidential election in 2024, the Biden administration hopes to assist Israel in mending fences with Saudi Arabia and Libya. To mitigate the effects of its military drawdown in the Middle East, the United States is striving for a permanent normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Violence in the West Bank continues to rise, and Saudi Arabia is demanding a civilian nuclear program and a military alliance, both of which have held down negotiations.

The current political context in Libya makes it difficult to establish or strengthen secret ties with Israel. There is still a lot of anti-Israel sentiment, and Tripoli’s firing of Mangoush shows that the administration isn’t ready to take any chances. The cost of holding presidential and parliamentary elections in Libya in 2024 will rise rapidly. If Israel makes a public announcement about the Mangoush-Cohen meeting, it could stymie efforts to normalize relations between the two countries and damage clandestine connections. Security risks persist, particularly in Tripoli, where street fighting and the independence of militias increase threats. Tripoli militias, including the 444 brigade and Special Deterrence Force, pose security threats; Islamic State and extremist organizations still exist with a strong presence alongside local militias.