𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡-𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐝.

The “intimacy moment” in Ukraine-Poland relations is coming to an end, with top officials in Kyiv and Warsaw wasting time on economic rather than security matters. The current problems have an electoral foundation and will most likely intensify in the future. Poland’s support for Ukraine’s resistance in the battle with Russia has switched in importance, with a Polish domestic security priority taking its place. The tiredness of Polish society toward Ukrainian refugees is significant, but not epic. Even Polish financial assistance to Ukrainian refugees could be halted. A more serious issue is the conflict generated by a prohibition on Ukrainian agricultural product shipments to Poland, which is only in effect until September 15. Poland and Hungary have threatened to keep the ban in place at the national level, in violation of the EU’s single market premise.

Politics is the driving force behind Poland’s stance because the current administration doesn’t seem to have a good chance of winning the upcoming legislative elections in Ukraine’s neighboring nation on October 15. The current Polish administration is unwilling to risk losing the votes of Polish farmers, so lifting the prohibition is out of the question. The Ukrainian government has stated its intention to fight Poland’s actions in the event of a unilateral ban. The Polish people are not afraid of this threat because they believe it is the best way to safeguard national interests.

The Ukrainian government has selected the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) weapon to apply international pressure on Poland because it will entice countries from the Global South, particularly African countries, to join the dispute in favor of Ukraine’s position. As a result, Kyiv will face enormous pressure to quit WTO arbitration, using any and all available justifications, including Ukraine’s “ingratitude” for Poland’s military backing.

@prognoz_news