𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡-𝐑𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐑𝐆𝐂 𝐎𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐲𝐫𝐢𝐚

Iran’s senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) paramilitary, Sayyed Reza Mousavi, died in Syria in a targeted killing, possibly the most consequential in the region since the assassination of “shadow commander” Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. Mousavi, who was close to Soleimani and headed the IRGC’s Quds Force, had “more knowledge of the realities on the ground” in Syria than anyone else. He had been working in the Iranian embassy as a diplomat and died in an Israeli missile strike in Sayyida Zeinab, southern Damascus. Israel has refused to confirm or deny its role in the killing, as is common in the case of strikes against Iran-related targets in Syria attributed to it. Intelligence agencies in countries like the UK, the US, and Israel know very well the significance of such people in Syria, even though they try to be very quiet and keep a low profile. Mousavi would undoubtedly have been a tempting target for Israel since he reportedly began organizing the transfer of arms and funds to Iran’s militia proxies in Syria along with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The assassination of Mousavi,  with ties to Hezbollah, is fraught with symbolic meaning. According to Ben Caspit, who writes, Israel’s recent actions indicate that the country is getting ready for a larger confrontation along its northern border, which may involve “a big aerial strike on Iran.”

Tehran as the epicentre

The West has concluded that Iran has been boosting its backing for Hezbollah since the Israel-Hamas war started, and there have been rising skirmishes on the Israeli-Lebanese border since October 7. This has led to an escalation of tensions. Iran reportedly sent $200 million to its proxies in Syria and Lebanon during the previous two months, according to the Israeli public channel Kan.

Reaction from the Islamic Republic and the Chance of Retaliation

Although Israeli forces have targeted high-ranking commanders like Mousavi in the past in Lebanon and Syria, the circumstances of his killing are unprecedented.

Speeched on national television by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Raisi declared, “Undoubtedly the usurper and cruel Zionist regime will pay for this atrocity.”. For the occupying Zionist administration, “this action is another expression of dissatisfaction, powerlessness and weakness.”

Syria and other proxies linked to the Islamic Republic in Lebanon and Iraq pose a significant threat to Israel, putting the Israeli military on high alert.

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