𝐖𝐚𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐞𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐙𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐤𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥

General Valery Zaluzhny, head of the Ukrainian military, will be fired, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who made the announcement during a meeting on Monday. After months of tension between the president and the popular general, and in the midst of Ukraine’s continuing battlefield challenges, this move is being made. Even though Zaluzhny is still in charge for the time being, an official presidential decree will most likely confirm his removal after more than two years of Russia’s invasion. Serhiy Nykyforov, a spokesman for Zelensky, rejected Zaluzhny’s dismissal. Without the massive increase in personnel and weaponry that Zaluzhny has asked of Zelensky, it is impossible to see how any new commander could improve the precarious situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. At a time when Russia’s strikes have intensified and Western security aid for Kyiv has lagged, Zelensky’s dismissal is a political gamble and bears strategic concerns. It is also anticipated that senior staff members of Zaluzhny will be dismissed. Disagreement over the number of soldiers that Ukraine must mobilize this year sparked the meeting.

Zaluzhny dismissal may weaken national solidarity and add little to Kyiv’s overall military effort. Ukrainians have no choice but to support Zaluzhny over Zelensky, and polls show that he may be around for a while. The claims that subordinates of Zaluzhny were involved in the 2022 attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline have added gasoline to the fire of animosity between Zelensky and Zaluzhny over military defeats. A former Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, has urged Zelensky to shelve such plans, saying that they could lead to political unrest in Ukraine, which the West could then use as an excuse to cut aid. Ukraine should aim to maximize frontline manpower in 2024 and 2025 for a renewed large-scale offensive, but there is now fundamental debate over how fast and whether to do so. Although both Zaluzhny and Zelensky are in favor of massive mobilization, Zelensky will not back it until it comes with a concrete strategy to regain control of the battlefield. Because demands for responsibility over the prior mobilization and wider war plan would only increase, the Zelensky government probably thinks that a new commander of the Ukrainian military would provide a new face for a new strategy and whatever mobilization measures are finally decided.

There are 880,000 Ukrainians serving in the country’s “million-strong” army, according to President Zelensky, but only 600,000 are participating in combat duties. With Zaluzhny’s backing, a mobilization of more than 400,000 troops might enhance the opportunities for Ukrainian soldiers to be relieved of frontline duty. Given that Russia increased its army strength by about 170,000 in December 2023 and probably has 600,000 personnel on or near the frontline in Ukraine, it is quite doubtful that this mobilization will provide a decisive advantage in terms of numbers over Russian forces. The chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, has voiced his worries about the staffing crisis and the necessity for further mobilization waves. Zelensky and Ukraine’s resistance would be worse off without Zaluzhny because it would lower morale in the Ukrainian army and provide political power to those in the West who want to cut off support for Ukraine.

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